Space weather

Solar wind speed Solar wind magnetic fields Noon 10.7cm radio flux
Bt Bz

Update

Update

Update
ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 05.08.2020 10.25 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2020 Aug 05 1010 UTC
Station: GOES16


Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 04.08.2020 04.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2020 Aug 04 0454 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 04.08.2020 02.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3743
Valid From: 2020 Aug 03 2107 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2020 Aug 04 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 03.08.2020 21.08 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Aug 03 2107 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Aug 04 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 03.08.2020 02.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2020 Aug 03 0251 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 03.08.2020 01.21 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Aug 03 0120 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Aug 03 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 25.07.2020 22.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2020 Jul 25 2258 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 25.07.2020 22.56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Jul 25 2256 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Jul 26 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 25.07.2020 01.28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2020 Jul 25 0120 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 24.07.2020 22.10 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Jul 24 2210 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Jul 25 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 24.07.2020 16.42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Jul 24 1640 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Jul 24 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 14.07.2020 14.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3737
Valid From: 2020 Jul 14 0045 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2020 Jul 14 2300 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 14.07.2020 07.50 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3736
Valid From: 2020 Jul 14 0045 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2020 Jul 14 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 14.07.2020 01.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2020 Jul 14 0111 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 14.07.2020 00.47 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2020 Jul 14 0045 UTC
Valid To: 2020 Jul 14 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

Table

Date Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Sunspot number Sunspot area 10E-6 New regions GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux Flares
X-ray Optical
C M X S 1 2 3
Jul 6, 2020 69 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 7, 2020 68 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 8, 2020 67 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 9, 2020 69 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 10, 2020 69 12 10 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 11, 2020 69 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 12, 2020 68 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 13, 2020 68 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 14, 2020 69 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 15, 2020 68 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 16, 2020 69 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 17, 2020 68 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 18, 2020 68 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 19, 2020 69 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 20, 2020 69 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 21, 2020 70 11 80 1 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 22, 2020 70 11 120 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 23, 2020 70 11 120 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 24, 2020 70 11 120 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 25, 2020 70 11 120 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 26, 2020 71 11 120 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 27, 2020 71 11 70 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 28, 2020 72 22 50 1 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 29, 2020 73 22 85 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 30, 2020 73 22 110 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 31, 2020 72 23 70 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug 1, 2020 72 22 60 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug 2, 2020 73 22 60 1 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug 3, 2020 73 23 70 1 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Aug 4, 2020 73 12 50 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Average/Total 70 9 44 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Summary graph

Flares

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

K-indices



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Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Date A K-indices (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
Jul 7, 2020 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 0 1
Jul 8, 2020 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul 9, 2020 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Jul 10, 2020 3 0 1 2 1 0 1 0 1
Jul 11, 2020 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1
Jul 12, 2020 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
Jul 13, 2020 6 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 3
Jul 14, 2020 11 4 4 4 2 2 1 0 1
Jul 15, 2020 5 0 2 2 2 2 2 1 0
Jul 16, 2020 4 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 1
Jul 17, 2020 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1
Jul 18, 2020 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Jul 19, 2020 4 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
Jul 20, 2020 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Jul 21, 2020 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
Jul 22, 2020 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Jul 23, 2020 4 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 1
Jul 24, 2020 11 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 3
Jul 25, 2020 15 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 4
Jul 26, 2020 3 2 1 0 1 1 0 0 1
Jul 27, 2020 4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Jul 28, 2020 5 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Jul 29, 2020 5 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
Jul 30, 2020 4 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 1
Jul 31, 2020 4 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
Aug 1, 2020 3 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1
Aug 2, 2020 9 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 3
Aug 3, 2020 16 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 3
Aug 4, 2020 8 2 4 2 2 2 1 2 2
Aug 5, 2020 6 2 2 1

Middle Latitude

Date A K-indices
Jul 7, 2020 5 0 2 3 1 1 2 1 1
Jul 8, 2020 2 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1
Jul 9, 2020 4 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 0
Jul 10, 2020 3 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
Jul 11, 2020 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1
Jul 12, 2020 3 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 2
Jul 13, 2020 7 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 3
Jul 14, 2020 9 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1
Jul 15, 2020 6 0 2 2 2 3 2 2 0
Jul 16, 2020 4 0 0 0 2 3 2 1 1
Jul 17, 2020 5 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1
Jul 18, 2020 4 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 1
Jul 19, 2020 4 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 2
Jul 20, 2020 3 1 1 0 0 2 1 1 1
Jul 21, 2020 5 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1
Jul 22, 2020 5 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 1
Jul 23, 2020 4 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 1
Jul 24, 2020 2 3 2 2 3 3 0
Jul 25, 2020 27 4
Jul 26, 2020 3 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 1
Jul 27, 2020 5 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1
Jul 28, 2020 2 0 1 1 2 1 0
Jul 29, 2020 4 0 1 2 1 2 1 1 1
Jul 30, 2020 5 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 1
Jul 31, 2020 5 2 1 0 1 3 1 1 2
Aug 1, 2020 3 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 1
Aug 2, 2020 9 0 1 2 3 3 2 2 3
Aug 3, 2020 15 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Aug 4, 2020 9 2 4 2 1 2 2 2 2
Aug 5, 2020 2 2 1

High Latitude

Date A K-indices
Jul 7, 2020 2 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1
Jul 8, 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 9, 2020 4 1 0 2 2 3 0 0 0
Jul 10, 2020 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0
Jul 11, 2020 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jul 12, 2020 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0
Jul 13, 2020 2 2 3 3 0 0
Jul 14, 2020 18 4 5 4 3 1 1 1
Jul 15, 2020 11 0 1 1 2 4 5 1 0
Jul 16, 2020 9 0 0 0 5 3 1 1 0
Jul 17, 2020 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 1
Jul 18, 2020 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jul 19, 2020 3 0 0 1 2 2 1 0 0
Jul 20, 2020 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0
Jul 21, 2020 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
Jul 22, 2020 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0
Jul 23, 2020 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1
Jul 24, 2020 1 3 4 4 4 6 0
Jul 25, 2020 15 3
Jul 26, 2020 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Jul 27, 2020 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1
Jul 28, 2020 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 0
Jul 29, 2020 2 0 1 2 0 1 1 0 1
Jul 30, 2020 3 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 0
Jul 31, 2020 5 0 1 0 2 4 1 0 1
Aug 1, 2020 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0
Aug 2, 2020 21 0 1 1 5 5 5 2 2
Aug 3, 2020 26 3 4 4 6 3 4 2 2
Aug 4, 2020 13 3 4 2 4 3 1 1 1
Aug 5, 2020 1 2 1

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Data source: NOAA, Wikipedia

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