Space weather

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Update

Update
WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Issued: 25.09.2021 16.10 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 26: G1 (Minor) Sep 27: G2 (Moderate) Sep 28: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 25.09.2021 04.48 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Sep 25 0345 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 739 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 23.09.2021 17.08 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 24: None (Below G1) Sep 25: None (Below G1) Sep 26: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 23.09.2021 08.12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 23 0812 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0600-0900 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 23.09.2021 08.10 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 23 0805 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Sep 23 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: 23.09.2021 05.21 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Sep 23 0454 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 23.09.2021 05.10 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Sep 23 0444 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 966 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 22.09.2021 08.43 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 22 0840 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Sep 22 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 22.09.2021 08.28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3934
Valid From: 2021 Sep 21 2223 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Sep 22 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 22.09.2021 02.59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 22 0259 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 21.09.2021 22.24 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 21 2223 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Sep 22 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 18.09.2021 11.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3932
Valid From: 2021 Sep 17 0419 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Sep 18 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 17.09.2021 23.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1610
Valid From: 2021 Sep 17 2010 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Sep 18 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 17.09.2021 23.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 445
Valid From: 2021 Sep 17 2025 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Sep 18 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 17.09.2021 22.43 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 17 2240 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Issued: 17.09.2021 20.26 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 17 2025 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Sep 17 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 17.09.2021 20.15 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 17 2014 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 17.09.2021 20.10 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 17 2010 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Sep 18 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 17.09.2021 19.45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3931
Valid From: 2021 Sep 17 0419 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Sep 18 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 17.09.2021 11.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3930
Valid From: 2021 Sep 17 0419 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Sep 17 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 17.09.2021 06.01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 17 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 17.09.2021 04.55 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Sep 17 0417 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 582 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 17.09.2021 04.20 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 17 0419 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Sep 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 11.09.2021 00.09 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 10 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-0000 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 10.09.2021 22.24 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 10 2223 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Sep 11 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 08.09.2021 14.55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3927
Valid From: 2021 Sep 08 0845 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Sep 08 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 08.09.2021 10.07 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 08 1006 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 08.09.2021 08.43 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 08 0845 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Sep 08 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 08.09.2021 00.54 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 08 0050 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: 08.09.2021 00.41 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Sep 08 0006 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 08.09.2021 00.40 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Sep 08 0007 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 732 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 08.09.2021 00.36 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2021 Sep 08 0035 UTC
Valid To: 2021 Sep 08 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 07.09.2021 17.52 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3158
Begin Time: 2021 Sep 06 1325 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3283 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 06.09.2021 13.48 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 06 1325 UTC
Station: GOES16


Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 05.09.2021 14.45 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2021 Sep 05 1345 UTC
Station: GOES16


Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 03.09.2021 12.22 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3155
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0205 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 7837 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

CANCEL WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Issued: 02.09.2021 18.21 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 189
Original Issue Time: 2021 Aug 30 2039 UTC

Comment: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions no longer expected.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 02.09.2021 05.31 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3154
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0205 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 3639 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 01.09.2021 09.06 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3153
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0205 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2862 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 31.08.2021 12.36 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3152
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0205 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 4481 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Issued: 30.08.2021 20.39 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Aug 31: None (Below G1) Sep 01: G1 (Minor) Sep 02: G2 (Moderate)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 30.08.2021 05.26 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3151
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0205 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 11665 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 29.08.2021 05.00 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3150
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0205 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 10655 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Issued: 28.08.2021 06.43 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0615 UTC

Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 28.08.2021 06.33 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0604 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 276 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Issued: 28.08.2021 06.11 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0509 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 723 km/s

Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

CONTINUED ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 28.08.2021 05.00 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 3149
Begin Time: 2021 Aug 28 0205 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2526 pfu

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Issued: 28.08.2021 02.28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1608
Valid From: 2021 Aug 27 1800 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Aug 28 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Issued: 28.08.2021 02.27 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2021 Aug 28 0216 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 28.08.2021 02.26 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 3924
Valid From: 2021 Aug 27 1615 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2021 Aug 28 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Pesistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Issued: 28.08.2021 02.16 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2021 Aug 28 0205 UTC
Station: GOES16


Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Issued: 27.08.2021 21.03 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Aug 28: G1 (Minor) Aug 29: G1 (Minor) Aug 30: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Table

Date Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Sunspot number Sunspot area 10E-6 New regions GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux Flares
X-ray Optical
C M X S 1 2 3
Aug 27, 2021 90 73 440 1 * 4 0 0 6 1 0 0
Aug 28, 2021 90 77 400 0 * 7 1 0 11 1 0 0
Aug 29, 2021 89 44 330 0 * 3 0 0 3 1 0 0
Aug 30, 2021 91 41 240 0 * 6 0 0 9 0 0 0
Aug 31, 2021 84 37 250 0 * 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
Sep 1, 2021 84 35 230 0 * 2 0 0 3 0 0 0
Sep 2, 2021 86 33 290 1 * 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep 3, 2021 84 33 190 1 * 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Sep 4, 2021 87 68 200 3 * 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Sep 5, 2021 94 66 270 0 * 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
Sep 6, 2021 100 80 720 0 * 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
Sep 7, 2021 101 85 970 0 * 1 0 0 5 0 0 0
Sep 8, 2021 100 87 1000 1 * 4 0 0 10 1 0 0
Sep 9, 2021 100 124 1030 1 * 1 0 0 3 0 0 0
Sep 10, 2021 96 99 920 0 * 1 0 0 2 0 0 0
Sep 11, 2021 92 93 780 0 * 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Sep 12, 2021 88 47 390 0 * 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
Sep 13, 2021 83 32 200 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep 14, 2021 78 13 60 0 * 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Sep 15, 2021 75 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep 16, 2021 73 0 0 0 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep 17, 2021 73 0 0 0 * 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep 18, 2021 74 11 30 1 * 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep 19, 2021 75 13 60 0 * 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep 20, 2021 80 51 280 2 * 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sep 21, 2021 85 50 430 0 * 3 0 0 4 0 0 0
Sep 22, 2021 89 76 420 2 * 1 0 0 2 0 0 0
Sep 23, 2021 90 75 350 0 * 1 1 0 2 2 0 0
Sep 24, 2021 88 75 250 1 * 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Sep 25, 2021 88 38 200 0 * 3 0 0 4 0 0 0
Jan 1, 1970
Average/Total 84 50 353 14 45 2 0 87 6 0 0

Summary graph

Flares

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

K-indices



Today


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1 0 0 1 0 0



Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Date A K-indices (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
Aug 28, 2021 14 5 3 4 3 2 2 1 1
Aug 29, 2021 8 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3
Aug 30, 2021 7 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 3
Aug 31, 2021 7 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 2
Sep 1, 2021 5 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 0
Sep 2, 2021 4 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0
Sep 3, 2021 6 1 1 2 3 2 2 1 2
Sep 4, 2021 5 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2
Sep 5, 2021 6 2 3 1 2 2 1 0 1
Sep 6, 2021 6 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 2
Sep 7, 2021 8 1 1 2 3 2 2 3 3
Sep 8, 2021 14 4 2 3 4 3 2 2 1
Sep 9, 2021 6 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2
Sep 10, 2021 9 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 4
Sep 11, 2021 7 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 2
Sep 12, 2021 6 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 2
Sep 13, 2021 9 1 1 3 2 3 2 1 3
Sep 14, 2021 6 2 0 2 2 2 2 2 1
Sep 15, 2021 6 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2
Sep 16, 2021 3 1 2 1 0 1 1 1 1
Sep 17, 2021 24 2 4 1 4 2 3 5 5
Sep 18, 2021 11 3 4 3 3 2 1 0 1
Sep 19, 2021 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0
Sep 20, 2021 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1
Sep 21, 2021 8 3 0 1 1 1 3 2 3
Sep 22, 2021 12 4 2 4 3 1 1 1 2
Sep 23, 2021 11 3 3 4 2 2 2 2 1
Sep 24, 2021 8 3 2 2 1 1 3 1 1
Sep 25, 2021 7 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 2
Sep 26, 2021 3 1 0 0 1 0 0

Middle Latitude

Date A K-indices
Aug 28, 2021 17 5 3 4 3 3 2 1 1
Aug 29, 2021 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3
Aug 30, 2021 9 2 3 3 2 2 1 2 2
Aug 31, 2021 9 3 3 3 1 2 2 1 1
Sep 1, 2021 6 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1
Sep 2, 2021 3 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 1
Sep 3, 2021 6 0 1 2 3 2 2 1 2
Sep 4, 2021 5 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2
Sep 5, 2021 8 2 3 2 2 3 1 1 1
Sep 6, 2021 8 2 3 1 2 3 2 1 2
Sep 7, 2021 10 0 1 2 3 2 1 3 4
Sep 8, 2021 14 4 2 3 4 3 2 2 1
Sep 9, 2021 7 1 2 1 2 2 2 3 2
Sep 10, 2021 9 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 4
Sep 11, 2021 8 4 0 1 1 2 2 2 2
Sep 12, 2021 6 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 2
Sep 13, 2021 7 1 1 3 1 3 2 1 2
Sep 14, 2021 5 2 0 1 2 2 2 2 0
Sep 15, 2021 6 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2
Sep 16, 2021 3 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
Sep 17, 2021 19 2 3 1 3 2 2 5 5
Sep 18, 2021 14 3 4 4 3 3 1 1 1
Sep 19, 2021 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 0
Sep 20, 2021 4 1 0 0 2 2 2 1 1
Sep 21, 2021 6 2 0 1 1 2 2 2 3
Sep 22, 2021 11 3 2 4 3 2 2 1 2
Sep 23, 2021 10 2 3 4 2 2 2 2 1
Sep 24, 2021 6 2 2 2 1 1 3 1 1
Sep 25, 2021 7 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2
Sep 26, 2021 0 0 0 1 1 1

High Latitude

Date A K-indices
Aug 28, 2021 17 3 3 4 5 3 3 0 0
Aug 29, 2021 5 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1
Aug 30, 2021 8 1 2 1 4 3 1 1 1
Aug 31, 2021 8 2 2 3 3 3 1 0 0
Sep 1, 2021 12 1 1 3 5 3 3 0 0
Sep 2, 2021 5 0 1 0 3 3 1 1 0
Sep 3, 2021 20 1 1 3 6 5 2 0 1
Sep 4, 2021 6 1 1 2 4 2 0 0 1
Sep 5, 2021 10 1 1 2 3 5 1 0 0
Sep 6, 2021 3 1 1 0 2 1 2 0 1
Sep 7, 2021 7 1 0 3 4 1 0 2 1
Sep 8, 2021 33 2 2 6 6 6 1 1 1
Sep 9, 2021 3 0 1 2 2 1 0 0 1
Sep 10, 2021 6 1 3 3 0 0 1 1 2
Sep 11, 2021 5 3 1 1 1 2 0 1 1
Sep 12, 2021 14 0 1 2 5 5 1 1 1
Sep 13, 2021 13 0 0 3 5 4 2 1 2
Sep 14, 2021 8 1 0 2 3 4 1 2 1
Sep 15, 2021 12 3 3 4 3 1 1 1
Sep 16, 2021 9 2 3 3 3 2 1 0 2
Sep 17, 2021 32 2 3 3 6 6 3 3 4
Sep 18, 2021 16 2 4 4 5 3 1 0 0
Sep 19, 2021 5 1 2 3 3 1 0 0 0
Sep 20, 2021 3 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 1
Sep 21, 2021 6 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2
Sep 22, 2021 24 3 2 6 5 4 3 0 1
Sep 23, 2021 16 1 2 5 5 3 1 1 0
Sep 24, 2021 8 2 2 3 1 1 3 2 1
Sep 25, 2021 9 2 2 3 4 1 1 1 1
Sep 26, 2021 0 0 1 0 0 0

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Data source: NOAA, Wikipedia

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